Oct 10, 2025
Trade Uncertainty Grows
Tariff Uncertainty Intensifies Amid New Chinese Export Controls
Tariff uncertainty continues to escalate. Today, it is further heightened by China’s newly announced export control restrictions on rare earth elements, semiconductor materials, and other critical technologies. These developments have sparked global concern, particularly regarding how other nations, including the United States, will respond.
China’s export control measures are set to take effect on November 1, 2025.
In a recent social media post, President Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, also effective November 1, 2025, unless China reverses course.
Constitutionality of U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs
On November 5, 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the constitutionality of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. The case consolidates multiple lawsuits filed by small businesses and several states, and is widely regarded as one of the most consequential tests of executive authority over trade policy in recent history.
A ruling against the reciprocal tariffs could:
Invalidate billions of dollars in collected duties
Allow businesses to seek refunds
Reshape the balance of power between Congress and the presidency on trade matters
Core Legal Issue
At the heart of the case is whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which authorizes the president to regulate commerce during a national emergency, can be used to impose tariffs.
Courts have thus far ruled that tariffs fall under Congress’s exclusive constitutional authority, and that the IEEPA does not provide a blanket delegation of that power to the president.
For more details, please refer to our previous article covering the lower court rulings, which were upheld by the Court of Appeals.
The Trump Administration remains optimistic that the Court will either rule in its favor or affirm that the president can invoke a separate legal provision granting executive authority to impose tariffs.
Final Thoughts
Supply chain planning remains as critical as ever for businesses. There are various levers across functions and geographies that can help organizations manage geopolitical and economic impacts.
Our approach centers on identifying potential levers and opportunities, and on collaborating with specialized partners, including transfer pricing and trade experts, to deliver the value and expertise you need, when you need it.
If you’d like to explore how we can support your business, please contact us.
Previous articles on global trade:
Global Trade: Free Trade Zones and Bonded Warehouses
Ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade
Disclaimer
The contents of this insight are intended for general information only. illumina CPA Group, Inc. is not, by means of this communication, rendering professional advice or services. Before making any decisions or taking any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser.
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